Key events
Hollie Davidson blows here whistle. We’re off! Italy kick off from left to right on my screen.
Anthems are done. Hands shaken. Nerves jangling. Tensions high. We’re all set to go.
The players are heading out the tunnel. Not long to go now. The Aviva looks fantastic!
The Opta supercomputer has crunched the numbers and chucked out a predicted result.
Drumroll please….
Ireland 35-18 Italy
Phew, seems steep to me, but then I’m not a supercomputer.
According to the mechanical boffin, Ireland have a 84.6% chance of winning.
Jeremy Boyce has written in:
Hi Daniel.
I am REALLY looking forward to this match. I’ve been “with” Italy ever since they made it a 6 Nations but obviously reasons to be cheerful have been thin on the ground. Until now. Sergio Parisse was world class and was surely only a question of time before other high class Italians emerged.
Yes, the stats say that Ireland are 5 – 0 from their last meetings. But in the spirit of Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead, does that make it more likely or less likely that they will win again this time ? Is it more likely than ever that Italy will break the sequence ? Or that Ireland will continue it ? Or is it always 50 – 50, 23 v 23 on the day ?
As my 3rd year (I was 13) Maths teacher explained to us when we moved on to Statistics, “You can prove anything you like with statistics.” Maths wasn’t my strong subject, but that message stuck.
I’ll be hoping to sink a Prosecco Black Velvet at 80 minutes.
Ciao !
It’s been 13 years since Italy last beat Ireland.
After the shock 22-15 reverse in Rome in 2013, Ireland slipped to 9th in the world rankings and Brian O’Driscoll was cited for a stamp to an Italian’s chest.
Andy Farrell is waxing lyrical about the Azzuri, calling them “the best Italian side he’s faced”.
Meanwhile, Gonzaloi Quesada is expecting an “Irish backlash. France made Ireland look less than they are. We must do everything to make sure they don’t look that good today.”
Just seen a stat from Russ Petty concerning the expereince of the two teams.
In terms of caps, Ireland’s starting XV have an average of 30.
Italy’s is 37.
History made today
For the first time ever, a Six Nations match will be officiated by a woman.
It’s taken a long time but we’ve finally got here and it’s the remarkable Holly Davidson who will don the whistle and forge a new path for the sport.
She sat down with Don McRae for a wide ranging chat about the game, her journey and what she’s expecting this afternoon.
Perhaps a more telling stat is the last five meetings between the two teams.
Ireland have all of them. The last time they played here they ran out 36-0 winners. The time before that it was 33-7. The time before that was 57-6.
However, the Italians ran them close last season and were it not for a Dan Sheehan hat-trick, they might have lost.
I just had a quick glance at the last five games for both teams and it’s perhaps no surprise to learn that Italy are the form outfit of the two.
Ireland have lost to France, South Africa and New Zealand with wins over Australia and Japan.
Meanwhile, Italy have beaten Australia, Chile and Scotland. Their only two defeats have come against the all conquering Boks.
Does that teach us anything about today’s game? Not really. Unless of course it totally does and we should all expect an Italian romp.
Italy team
Se non è rotto, non aggiustarlo
That’s, if it aint broke, don’t fix, at least according to Google translate.
Just the one change to the side that did the business against Scotland. Ignacio Brex, one half of that world class midfield pair I was talking about before, is out for personal reasons.
That means 23-year-old Leonardo Marin, all 1.88 metres of him, slots in at 12. There’s still no Ange Capuozzo – ditto for a bunch of star players like Tommaso Allan, Sebastian Negri, Ross Vintcent, Gianmarco Lucchesi, Martin Page-Relo, Stephen Varney and Jacopo Trulla. But there’s plenty of firepower on the wings.
Quick tangent, I’m just such a fan of Monty Ione. Hope he goes well today. Oh, keep an eye out for English born Paolo Odogwu off the bench. And if you have time, check his Instagram account where he shows off creative side.
Italy: Pani; Lynagh, Marin, Menoncello, Ioane; P Garbisi, Fusco; Fischetti, Nicotera, Ferrari; N Cannone, Zambonin; Lamaro (c), Zuliani, L Cannone
Replacements: Di Bartolomeo, Spagnolo, Hasa, Ruzza, Favretto, Odiase, A Garbisi, Odogwu
Ireland team
Sam Prendergast keeps the 10 jersey despite some rumblings around his performance in Paris.
James Low returns to the wing as Jamison Gibson-Park drops to the bench.
Munster lock Edwin Edogbo is poised to earn his Ireland debut off the bench, while Tadhg Furlong is also among the replacements after returning to training this week.
Ireland: Osborne; Baloucoune, Ringrose, McCloskey, Lowe; S Prendergast, Casey; Loughman, Sheehan, Clarkson; McCarthy, Ryan; Izuchukwu, Doris (c), Conan.
Replacements: Kelleher, O’Toole, Furlong, Edogbo, Beirne, Timoney, Gibson-Park, Crowley
Preamble
Daniel Gallan
It wasn’t too long ago that this would have been a doddle.
Ruthless, clinical Ireland at fortress Dublin. Scrappy but sloppy Italy on the round. We’d be wondering about margins of victory, not contemplating the outcome after 80 minutes.
But the past is a foreign country and a lot can change in a short amount of time.
Now it is Italy who arrive on the emerald isle with the wind in their sails. A valiant show in a monsoon saw them edge Scotland 18-15 last week. They have arguably the best midfield pair in the world, slick half-backs, dazzlers out wide and a pack that matches the steel of their coach, Gonzalo Quesada.
As for Ireland, they are facing something close to an existential crisis after taking a battering in Paris. There are questions around the age of the squad, the capabilities of their young fly-halves, and whether or not Andy Farrell’s sojourn with the Lions has stifled Ireland’s progress.
Look, they still should win. But it’s not a forgone conclusion. I predict a proper ding-dong. This would rank among Italy’s greatest ever scalps and one of the darkest days in Ireland’s modern history.
It’s a tall order, but don’t be shocked if it happens.
Kick-off at 14:10 in Dublin. Teams and other updates to come til then.
