Target: ₹200
CMP: ₹160.25
We count on sharp earnings restoration for SAIL. We see near-term catalysts of self-help and pricing tailwinds supporting a restoration in SAIL’s earnings trajectory, with EBITDA/t anticipated to enhance to ₹7,000–7,500 over the subsequent two quarters vs ₹4,500 in Q3.
We see three distinct beneficial catalysts: Inventories: We count on continued stock unwind, with potential of one other 1.5 mt over coming quarters. With this, SAIL is prone to ship This fall quantity of 5.4 mt (+5.5 per cent q-o-q); Prices: Rebar costs have recovered meaningfully with uptick in building and infra venture exercise, which, regardless of the current spike in coking coal prices (QTD common of $235/t vs $199/t in Q3), ought to help a sequential restoration in margins; and Deleveraging: Higher realisations coupled with stock unwind are prone to strengthen money circulation era, lowering web debt by 28 per cent y-o-y to ₹20,800 crore in FY26.
We see a set of structural catalysts strengthening the funding case, which ought to allow it to sustainably generate EBITDA/t of ₹7,500-8,000, constructing in a metal–coking coal unfold of $350/t.
We keep Buy on SAIL and improve our TP to ₹200 from ₹175, as valuations stay compelling, supported by near-term self-help measures and pricing tailwinds. Inventory unwind, enhancing product combine, and coal mixing efficiencies ought to drive margin stability, whereas stronger home costs assist near-term profitability. SAIL trades at 1.1x P/B vs its long-term common of 0.7x and sector P/B of two.8x (long-term common: 1.6x).
Published on February 24, 2026
