Despite early indicators of a rebound in Chinese arrivals in the course of the first two months, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is downplaying expectations for a robust restoration, preferring to attend till May to evaluate whether or not demand has stabilised.
Chinese arrivals rose 0.3% to 991,718 as of Feb 23, up from 988,451 year-on-year.
According to the Tourism and Sports Ministry, the entire variety of Chinese arrivals for the primary two months is projected to tally 1.08 million, rising 4.5% year-on-year.
The progress is pushed by 100,000 further airline seats, promotional campaigns by way of chartered flights and on-line journey brokers, famous the ministry.
Siriges-a-nong Trirattanasongpol, government director for East Asia on the TAT, stated the company reported a restoration because the last quarter of final yr.
The development turned extra obvious in the course of the Chinese New Year this month, as arrivals from the mainland rose 4% and 10% from 2024 and 2025, respectively.
Of the 27.7 billion baht the tourism sector earned from seven Asian markets in the course of the vacation, round 60.3% or 16.7 billion baht got here from Chinese expenditure.
“We need to monitor tourism flows and maintain consistent promotional campaigns as the low season is approaching. The agency prefers to wait until Labour Day in May, the next long holiday for the Chinese market, before determining whether demand has fully rebounded,” stated Mrs Siriges-a-nong.
Concerns over security in Thailand have begun to subside as guests at year-end 2025 helped affirm with their buddies and households that the state of affairs in Thailand has returned to regular, she stated.
The Chinese market stays depending on festivals and holidays, prompting the company to plan promotions 1-2 months upfront, comparable to for Songkran and Labour Day, stated Mrs Siriges-a-nong.
Regarding China-Japan political tensions, she stated as a result of completely different chilly season choices from Japan, Thailand couldn’t profit from the windfall of Chinese vacationers shifting from Japan to different locations, in contrast to South Korea, which has extra direct product replacements.
Other elements to look at within the Chinese market embody the sturdy baht and the widespread use of unlawful hashish in Thailand, which has considerably affected household teams with kids, as many now keep away from visiting Thailand because of this, stated Mrs Siriges-a-nong.
For 2026, the TAT targets 4.5-4.6 million Chinese vacationers, banking on seat capability of seven.1 million for the yr.
Adith Chairattananon, honorary secretary-general of the Association of Thai Travel Agents, stated the personal sector is assured Chinese arrivals will whole 6-7 million this yr if Thailand can preserve common every day arrivals of 15,000-16,000 recorded in January.
He stated Dragon Trail’s Chinese New Year outbound analysis discovered Thailand captured a 6.56% market share, near the 6.46% recorded within the 2019 when the nation gained practically 10 million guests from 155 million outbound Chinese travellers.
“The market has clearly recovered,” stated Mr Adith.
“Our only remaining concern is safety, as the government still lacks concrete measures to address potential risks.”
