Tamil Nadu election 2026: Stung by erosion in vote share, AIADMK preventing battle of notion
The AIADMK, which dominated Tamil Nadu for the best variety of years since 1977, is battling an hostile notion – amid its part of frequent electoral setbacks – that it’s quick turning into a sub-regional get together.
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A have a look at the get together’s power, as measured within the 2021 Assembly election, reveals that the Dravidian main has grow to be very weak within the districts of Kancheepuram, Tiruvallur, Chengalpattu, and Chennai (KTCC), the place it may win just one – Madurantakam – out of 37 Assembly seats. The 2024 Lok Sabha election didn’t present any aid to the management. If the votes polled by the coalitions headed by the AIADMK and its current ally, the BJP, is added within the KTCC belt, they’d have finished properly solely in two Assembly segments: T. Nagar and Madurantakam.
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However, an old-timer within the get together factors out that even within the 1977 and 1980 Assembly polls, when the AIADMK’s founder M.G. Ramachandran held sway, the organisation received just one and two seats, respectively, in Chennai. He remembers that MGR had, at one stage, needed a lot of his senior colleagues to be fielded in constituencies of Chennai.
In the remaining 41 seats of the northern area that includes the districts of Cuddalore, Kallakurichi, Villupuram, Tiruvannamalai, Vellore, Ranipet, and Tirupattur, the get together bagged 9 seats 5 years in the past and was forward of the DMK-led entrance in Tirukoyilur and Ulundurpettai segments in 2024. Had the fronts of the AIADMK and BJP been collectively, such a coalition would have secured the lead in 17 different Assembly segments in 2024.
The Cauvery delta or the central area, with 41 seats, too, has not been nearly as good to the get together. Even when the AIADMK romped house in 2011 with 150 seats, the share of the area was modest, with 26 seats. In 2024, solely within the Assembly segments of Ariyalur and Jayamkondam, the get together was forward of the remainder. Had it aligned with the BJP, 4 extra segments would have been accrued.
The State’s southern districts have, for lengthy, been thought of one of many strongholds of the get together. MGR selected Aruppukottai, now in Virudhunagar district, to contest within the 1977 Assembly election and went on to grow to be Chief Minister for the primary time. Three years later, his constituency was Madurai West and at last in 1984, Andipatti. Jayalalithaa was first elected to the Assembly from Bodinayakkanur in 1989 and Andipatti in 2002 and 2006. But the power of the organisation in 2024 could possibly be gauged from the truth that 5 out of the seven Lok Sabha seats the place the get together forfeited its deposit had been within the south. A middle-aged chief of the get together from the area is assured of the get together regaining its misplaced floor by its tie-up with T.T.V. Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK).
On the opposite, the western or Kongu area has been a loyal supporter of the get together, by thick and skinny. In 2011 and 2016, when the AIADMK captured and retained energy, the area’s tally diverse from 39 to 42. Even in 2021, towards the formidable coalition led by the DMK, the get together secured 35 seats. Three years later, through the Lok Sabha polls, the AIADMK was the lead get together solely in eight Assembly segments throughout the State, of which 4 got here from the area. Had there been a mixed efficiency of the AIADMK, BJP, and their allies, 34 extra segments would have gone to it.
Commenting on this matter, senior get together chief and former Education and Health Minister S. Semmalai factors out that every get together has its personal areas of power. “The AIADMK has been a people’s movement, which has its base across the State,” he contends. Whenever new events, that too primarily based on the power of sure communities, come up, conventional events do undergo some dent of their following, Mr. Semmalai mentioned. According to him, to beat this issue, his get together’s common secretary Edappadi Okay. Palaniswami has labored out sure methods, together with tie-ups with completely different events for the April 23 Assembly elections.
Published – March 24, 2026 04:48 pm IST
