PIB Headquarters
Redefining Growth: India’s Revised GDP Estimates and the New Measurement Framework
Posted On:
27 FEB 2026 9:52PM by PIB Delhi
|
Key Takeaways · Real GDP development for 2025-26 is estimated at 7.6%, greater than the 7.1% recorded in 2024-25 · Base yr for GDP Estimates has been revised from 2011–12 to 2022–23 to raised replicate India’s evolving financial construction. · The revised GDP collection strengthens estimation by integrating new, improved information sources equivalent to ASUSE, PLFS, GST, PFMS and so on.
|
Introduction
India’s development trajectory is more and more being formed not solely by financial efficiency but additionally by the standard and credibility of its statistical techniques. In this path, the excellent overview of India’s newest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates with base yr 2022-23, replicate the evolving momentum of the economic system compared with the earlier monetary years.
The actual annual GDP development for FY 2025-26 is estimated at 7.6%, greater than the 7.1% recorded in FY 2024-25, whereas nominal GDP, measured at present costs, is projected to develop by 8.6% throughout FY 2025-26. Within this, the manufacturing sector has recorded double-digit development in each FY 2023-24 and FY 2025-26, rising as a key contributor to the economic system’s resilient efficiency. The secondary and tertiary sectors have strengthened total financial efficiency, recording development charges exceeding 9.0% in FY 2025-26. Also, the ‘Trade, Repair, Hotels, Transport, Communication and Services related to Broadcasting and Storage’ sector recorded a development fee of 10.1% at fixed costs in FY 2025-26.
The regular upward trajectory in India’s financial progress can also be mirrored within the quarterly outcomes. The actual GDP at Constant Prices for the interval October-December (Q3) of FY 2025-26 is estimated at ₹84.54 lakh crore, marking a sturdy development of seven.8%. This development has progressively accelerated from 7.1% in Q3 of FY 2023-24 and seven.4% in Q3 of FY 2024-25, underscoring the sustained resilience and strengthening of the Indian economic system.
|
GDP is the worth of ultimate items and companies produced inside a rustic in an accounting interval.
|
The new collection of GDP estimates contains key modifications to raised seize the progress of the economic system through the years. The compilation is predicated on Benchmark-Indicator methodology wherein the estimates computed for the earlier monetary yr are extrapolated utilizing the related indicators reflecting the efficiency of varied financial and institutional sectors.
Recalibrating GDP Estimation for India’s Transforming Dynamic Economy
GDP is probably the most broadly used indicator of an economic system’s measurement and total well being. By monitoring modifications in GDP over time, one can assess whether or not an economic system is increasing or contracting and draw broad inferences about enhancements in dwelling requirements. Consequently, policymakers, companies, and monetary establishments depend on GDP developments to information financial planning and decision-making.
|
Calculation of quarterly GDP estimates National Statistical Office (NSO) & Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) calculate the quarterly GDP estimates utilizing Benchmark-Indicator- a normal technique used worldwide following the System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008 and IMF’s Quarterly National Accounts Manual 2017. The technique works as follows:
|
For comparisons throughout time to be significant, GDP estimates have to be primarily based on constant methodologies, information sources, and base years. Any revision in measurement frameworks should subsequently be fastidiously designed to make sure continuity and reliability.
Recognising this, India’s statistical system has undergone complete modernisation to raised replicate the realities of a quickly evolving economic system. Key reforms embrace revising the bottom years of GDP and worth indices, strengthening the measurement of the casual and companies sectors, bettering labour market statistics, adopting superior survey strategies and expertise, and enhancing transparency via wider stakeholder engagement.
Collectively, these reforms purpose to boost the timeliness, depth, and credibility of India’s official statistics, thereby strengthening the muse for evidence-based policymaking.
Decoding Base Year
As per National Accounts Statistics, which gives information on the nationwide earnings, manufacturing, and expenditure aggregates of the Indian economic system, the base yr is the reference yr whose costs are used to calculate actual development.
Rebasing & frequency of base yr revisions
|
Rebasing is the method of updating the bottom yr utilizing revised and improved information to replicate the present construction of the economic system. The new base then serves because the reference level for estimating GDP and its elements, in addition to key indicators such because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) going ahead.
|
A key reform has been the revision of the GDP base yr from 2011–12 to 2022–23 to raised replicate India’s evolving financial construction.
Why GDP base yr has been revised to FY 2022-23
|
DID YOU KNOW? The yr 2022–23 has been chosen as the brand new base yr because it represents the newest “normal” interval following the disruptions of 2019–2021. The years 2019–20 and 2020–21 have been closely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which briefly distorted consumption developments and industrial exercise.
|
The base yr is revised periodically to replicate structural shifts within the economic system and to enhance the accuracy of financial estimates. Such updates permit for methodological refinements and the combination of extra complete and dependable information sources.
Over the previous decade, India’s economic system has developed significantly, with the enlargement of renewable power and digital companies, alongside modifications in consumption patterns and funding behaviour. Rebasing permits GDP and associated indices to raised seize the contribution of rising sectors, shifts in relative costs, and advances in expertise and productiveness.
At the identical time, speedy digitisation has expanded the supply of high-frequency information, strengthening the precision of nationwide accounts. Real-time techniques equivalent to e-Vahan (automobile registrations), the Public Financial Management System (PFMS), and the GST community now present granular financial insights that improve the robustness of GDP estimates.
Besides, periodic revisions additionally assist alignment with worldwide finest practices beneficial by the UN Statistical Commission, guaranteeing that India’s statistical framework stays methodologically sound and globally comparable, significantly in areas equivalent to digital economic system measurement and supply-use tables.
Modernizing India’s GDP Estimation
The revised GDP collection strengthens estimation by integrating a number of new and improved information sources. The enhancements cut back dependence on proxy indicators and be certain that nationwide earnings estimates higher replicate the evolving construction of the economic system.
Data sources being utilized in new collection
Household Sector Measurement: Earlier, estimates for the family sector relied largely on development charges between benchmark surveys or proxy indicators. In the revised collection, precise degree estimates are being derived from common annual surveys such because the Annual Survey of Unincorporated Sector Enterprises (ASUSE) and the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). This shift permits extra correct and well timed evaluation of the sector’s dynamism.
Use of GST Data: GST information helps the allocation of all-India non-public company sector estimates throughout states and is used for cross-validation in annual accounts. It additionally performs a key function in quarterly estimation and as an indicator within the compilation of Quarterly National Accounts. The new collection makes wider and extra systematic use of GST information throughout manufacturing and non-financial companies sectors.
e-Vahan Database: Data from the e-Vahan portal are being utilised to estimate Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) associated to highway transport companies. PFCE is the expenditure incurred on remaining consumption of products and companies by the resident households of the nation.
Public Finance Management System (PFMS): PFMS information is getting used to compile central authorities accounts and distribute them throughout states. This permits using precise expenditure figures on the First Revised Estimates (FRE) stage, relatively than counting on Revised Estimates (RE). PFMS is a web-based on-line system that gives modules for end-to-end digital funds, assortment of receipts, accounting, reconciliation, and monetary reporting.
Incorporation of Recent Studies: Updated charges and ratios primarily based on latest knowledgeable research have been integrated to enhance estimation high quality. These embrace:
- A grass and fodder examine by the Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute (agriculture)
- Fisheries research by the Central Marine Fisheries Research Institute and the Central Inland Fisheries Research Institute
- Study on milk and milk merchandise by the National Dairy Research Institute (for PFCE)
- Study on transport companies by Jawaharlal Nehru University (for PFCE)
Together, these enhancements enhance the robustness, granularity, and reliability of nationwide earnings estimates.
Key Methodological Improvements within the New GDP Series
The revised GDP collection introduces a number of methodological enhancements to enhance accuracy, consistency, and sectoral illustration:
|
A deflator goals to interrupt down any change in costs right into a pure worth change between two time intervals for a like-for-like product.
|
Refined Deflation Techniques: Double deflation is now utilized in manufacturing and agriculture, whereas single extrapolation is utilized in different sectors. Single deflation has been discontinued. Deflators are utilized at a extra granular degree, with over 260 item-level CPI indices integrated.
Integration of Supply and Use Tables (SUT): The SUT framework has been aligned with National Accounts to cut back discrepancies between production- and expenditure-based GDP estimates. By matching whole provide with whole demand, this method improves inside consistency.
Updated Rates and Ratios: Compilation parameters have been revised utilizing latest survey findings and research carried out by MoSPI in collaboration with knowledgeable establishments.
Segregation of Multi-Activity Corporations: Previously, worth added by diversified enterprises was assigned to their principal exercise. With the supply of MGT-7/7A filings (which report activity-wise turnover shares), worth added is now distributed throughout actions extra precisely.
Improved Estimation of Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE):
A combined methodology is adopted, combining enhanced use of the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey, direct estimation from manufacturing and administrative information, and the commodity circulate method. The up to date COICOP 2018 classification has additionally been carried out. The Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP) is the worldwide reference classification of family expenditure.
Sectoral Coverage of Revised Framework
With a number of sector-specific refinements, the revised quarterly compilation framework has been aligned extra intently with the Annual National Accounts methodology when it comes to sectoral classification, deflation methods, and estimation practices. The harmonization additionally ensures better consistency between quarterly and annual GDP and Gross Value Added (GVA) estimates.
Notably, deflators equivalent to Consumer Price Index (CPI), Wholesale Price Index (WPI), Unit Value Index, and so on are getting used at extra granular degree by transferring from combination degree in previous collection to item-group degree in new collection.
Inclusion of Hired Domestic Workers in GDP Estimation
The companies of employed home staff are labeled as “activities of households as employers of domestic personnel” and are included in GDP estimation. Their contribution is calculated utilizing information on the variety of such staff and their wages, as captured yearly.
Capturing Digital, Platform and Gig Economy Activities within the Revised GDP Series
Digital companies, middleman platforms and associated actions within the company sector have been already lined via MCA-21 filings, e-Governance initiative that gives availability of all registry associated companies together with submitting of paperwork, registration of firms and public entry to company data via a safe interactive portal. The new collection contains unincorporated enterprises, self-employed people and casual staff, permitting their contribution to GDP to be captured extra precisely on an annual foundation.
Key Data Sources for Estimating the General Government Sector
The estimates for the General Government sector are primarily compiled utilizing funds paperwork of the Central and State Governments—such because the Receipt Budget and Detailed Demands for Grants of varied Ministries and Departments—together with the annual accounts of native our bodies and autonomous establishments.
The new collection incorporates a number of enhancements to strengthen these estimates. These include-
- Adjustments to account for the rollout of the National Pension System (NPS) alongside the continued operation of the Old Pension Scheme (OPS)
- Imputation of the government-provided lodging instead of House Rent Allowance (HRA).
- Improved protection of native our bodies and autonomous establishments
- The adoption of a quantity extrapolation technique for estimating product subsidies at fixed costs.
Together, these refinements improve the accuracy and comprehensiveness of General Government sector estimates.
Resolving Key Discrepancy in Supply & Use Table Framework
The SUTs clarify how items and companies circulate via the economic system. On the availability aspect, they present how merchandise enter the economy- both via home manufacturing or imports. On the use aspect, they present how these merchandise are consumed- as intermediate inputs by industries, remaining consumption by households, non-profit establishments serving households (NPISHs) and Government, gross capital formation, or exports.
By linking provide with use for every product, the SUT framework gives a complete mechanism to combine and stability the manufacturing, earnings and expenditure approaches to GDP estimation.
However, discrepancies between these approaches can come up on account of variations in information protection, time lags in information availability, reliance on proxy indicators for advance estimates, and variations in estimation strategies.
The System of National Accounts 2008 (SNA 2008), continued in SNA 2025, recommends two key approaches to handle such discrepancies:
- Explicitly current the statistical discrepancy alongside official GDP estimates to boost transparency.
- Reconcile manufacturing/earnings and manufacturing estimates utilizing the Supply and Use Table framework, which strengthens consistency throughout datasets.
In the brand new GDP collection, the SUT framework is being systematically built-in into the compilation course of. By making use of the “product-balancing” precept (guaranteeing that whole provide equals whole use), the framework helps reconcile variations between manufacturing and expenditure estimates. As a end result, statistical discrepancies within the remaining estimates are resolved, resulting in internally constant and extra dependable GDP figures.
Ensuring Consistency & Methodological Strength in GSDP Estimation
|
GSDP is the worth of all the products and companies produced inside the boundaries of the State throughout a yr.
|
The NSO, below MoSPI, points tips for estimating Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) and gives technical assist to States and Union Territories (UTs). This ensures that GSDP is compiled utilizing uniform definitions, ideas and methodologies in line with nationwide accounts. The Directorates of Economics and Statistics (DES) in every State/UT put together their GSDP estimates utilizing state-specific information, largely drawn from widespread information sources.
GSDP collection with new base to be rolled out with main methodological enhancements
Following the discharge of GDP with the brand new base yr 2022–23, NSO, MoSPI will talk the required methodological modifications and enhancements to allow States/UTs to revise their GSDP estimates accordingly.
- Reduction in allocation-based strategies in favour of direct estimation for some sectors or sub-sectors
- Reduced dependence on mounted ratios and proxy indicators
- Improved use of state-level financial information, and enhanced methodological consistency throughout States.
Together, these measures strengthen the accuracy and comparability of GSDP estimates.
The Way Forward
With base yr for GDP estimates being revised to 2022-23, CPI base yr being revised to 2024 and IIP being revised to 2022-23, India’s statistical system is present process a complete modernization.
Continuing this momentum, the base yr revision of WPI can also be in progress. Until the up to date WPI turns into accessible, the prevailing WPI will proceed for use as a deflator. Additionally, the MoSPI plans to include the Producer Price Index (PPI) within the close to future. PPI measures the speed of change within the costs of products and companies purchased and bought by producers.
Other information scheduled to be launched within the subsequent few months include-
- Methodology and information sources utilized in compilation of estimates is because of be offered in MoSPI’s publication ‘Sources and Methods’ and is more likely to be launched within the subsequent few months.
|
DID YOU KNOW? India compiles its GDP estimates in step with the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA 2008), the internationally accepted statistical framework. With the United Nations Statistical Division transitioning to SNA 2025- anticipated to be adopted globally round 2029–30- India intends to align with the up to date customary in its subsequent base yr revision. Additionally, as a subscriber to the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS), India adheres to globally recognised benchmarks of statistical high quality and transparency. The revised GDP collection stays totally in line with worldwide statistical requirements.
|
Back-series information is predicted to be launched by December 2026. As per established follow, estimates might be recalculated utilizing the revised methodology as much as the earlier base yr after which linked at a disaggregated degree to increase the collection again to 1950–51.
Conclusion
With actual GDP now estimated to develop by 7.6% in FY 2025–26, the Indian economic system is about to report robust and sustained enlargement. This sturdy efficiency reinforces India’s development momentum and strengthens its trajectory in direction of attaining the imaginative and prescient of Viksit Bharat, marked by greater productiveness, resilience, and inclusive improvement.
To this accord, the revision of the GDP base yr to 2022–23 marks a major step in aligning India’s nationwide accounts with the realities of a quickly remodeling economic system. By integrating improved information sources, strengthening methodological frameworks, increasing protection of rising sectors, and enhancing transparency via the SUT framework, the brand new collection gives a extra correct, constant and complete measure of financial exercise.
The Indian statistical system is transferring in direction of greater requirements of precision, comparability and world alignment. Together, these efforts strengthen the credibility of official statistics and reinforce their function as a sturdy basis for knowledgeable policymaking and sustainable financial planning.
References
Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2129126®=3&lang=2
Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Corporate Affairs
https://www.pib.gov.in/newsite/erelcontent.aspx?relid=52614®=3&lang=2
European Union
Open Government Data Platform India
https://www.data.gov.in/catalog/final-consumption-expenditure-constant-prices
PIB Archives
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2219549®=3&lang=1
https://www.pib.gov.in/PressNoteDetails.aspx?NoteId=155121&ModuleId=3®=3&lang=2
Office for National Statistics
United Nations
https://unstats.un.org/unsd/classifications/unsdclassifications/COICOP_2018_-_pre-edited_white_cover_version_-_2018-12-26.pdf
***
PIB Research
(Release ID: 2233792)
Visitor Counter : 6306
