Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in strikes carried out by the United States and Israel on Saturday, a improvement that’s set to shake the foundations of clerical rule within the Islamic Republic.
The political system he dominated for greater than three a long time was by no means designed to soak up a sudden elimination underneath hearth. The succession course of exists on paper. Whether it really works in disaster is one other query.
WHO COULD SUCCEED KHAMENEI AS ‘SUPREME LEADER’?
According to Reuters, Iran’s structure requires that the supreme chief be a cleric underneath the doctrine of vilayat-e faqih — the guardianship of the Islamic jurist. The precept holds that, till the return of the Shi’ite Muslim twelfth Imam who disappeared within the ninth century, authority ought to relaxation with a senior non secular scholar.
Under Khamenei and his predecessor, the founding father of the Islamic Republic Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the supreme chief has the final say in all issues of state, however the system has by no means confronted such a problem earlier than.
Khamenei’s sway has usually been wielded by means of shut advisers. But within the aftermath of Saturday’s strikes it’s removed from clear what number of of these high figures have survived.
Possible candidates beforehand talked about by analysts embrace his son Mojtaba Khamenei and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder. Other senior clerics have additionally been cited.
However, Reuters notes that no present determine carries Khamenei’s authority, and any successor could battle to claim management over highly effective establishments such because the Revolutionary Guards and senior clerical our bodies.
WILL IRAN’S THEOCRACY PERSIST?
According to Reuters, Iran’s clerical institution retains management over highly effective establishments that form almost each layer of the political system.
At the middle is the Assembly of Experts, a physique of senior ayatollahs elected each eight years. The meeting is constitutionally tasked with appointing the supreme chief and, in principle, has the authority to query or dismiss him — although it has by no means exercised that energy.
In apply, any resolution on succession would possible be formed by essentially the most senior energy brokers throughout the Islamic Republic earlier than being formally endorsed by the meeting. With a number of high Revolutionary Guards figures reported killed, it stays unclear who would dominate that course of.
The Guardian Council — half appointed by the supreme chief and half by the judiciary chief — can veto parliamentary laws and disqualify candidates from elections. That authority has usually been used to sideline critics of Ali Khamenei, Reuters reported.
Iran’s judiciary operates underneath Shi’ite interpretations of Islamic legislation, with the chief justice appointed by the supreme chief. The present head, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, has confronted Western sanctions over a 2009 crackdown on protesters.
Reuters additionally recognized different influential clerics, together with former judiciary chief Sadiq Larijani, Assembly of Experts member Mohsen Araki, and Tehran Friday prayer chief Ahmad Khatami, as potential gamers in any transition.
WHAT ROLE COULD THE REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS PLAY?
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) operates exterior the authority of Iran’s elected authorities and solutions on to the supreme chief — not like the common military, which falls underneath the Defence Ministry.
Three sources conversant in the matter advised Reuters that IRGC commander Mohammed Pakpour was killed in Saturday’s strikes, a improvement that would reshape the inner steadiness of energy.
Formed within the aftermath of the 1979 revolution, the Guards expanded their affect through the 1980–88 conflict with Iraq and have since developed into essentially the most highly effective and best-equipped department of Iran’s armed forces, Reuters stories.
Over a long time, the IRGC entrenched itself in politics and enterprise, extending its attain nicely past the battlefield. Its elite Quds Force spearheaded Iran’s regional technique, backing allied Shi’ite teams throughout the Middle East. That technique suffered main setbacks after the 2020 US killing of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and Israel’s 2024 marketing campaign towards Hezbollah.
The Basij militia, underneath IRGC management, has continuously been deployed to suppress home protests.
Reuters notes that focused Israeli strikes on senior Guards commanders have raised questions on potential intelligence penetration on the highest ranges. Even so, the IRGC is extensively anticipated to play a decisive position in shaping what comes subsequent for the Islamic Republic.
WHY DOES IRAN HOLD ELECTIONS?
According to Reuters, Iran combines clerical oversight with elected establishments. Citizens vote for a president and parliament each 4 years, however final authority rests with the supreme chief.
Iranians elect a president and a parliament to four-year phrases. The president types a authorities and manages day-to-day coverage, although selections should function inside boundaries set by the nation’s unelected management, Reuters notes.
In the early years after the 1979 revolution, elections noticed excessive participation. Over time, nevertheless, confidence within the system eroded. But Guardian Council restrictions on candidates, a much-disputed election final result in 2009 and the supremacy of unelected elements of the state undermined religion in electoral politics.
President Masoud Pezeshkian, thought to be a relative reasonable, was elected in 2024 after defeating a hardline rival. Israel stated he was additionally focused in Saturday’s strikes, although there was no affirmation later within the day relating to his standing.
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With inputs from Reuters
