Our soccer betting knowledgeable Jones Knows supplies his perception throughout the weekend Premier League card.
Bournemouth vs Sunderland, Saturday 12.30pm
Across their final 10 matches Bournemouth are transport round 1.64 anticipated targets in opposition to per 90 – that is not sustainable when you’re harbouring ambitions of a powerful finish to the season. It’s not simply speculative pot-shots both, they’re giving up huge, high-probability possibilities far too simply. West Ham managed to squander 3.25 value of anticipated targets final weekend with out handle to breach the Bournemouth defence.
The market is leaning closely in direction of the hosts but when Bournemouth proceed to concede possibilities at such an xGA clip, they are going to get punished. Sunderland needn’t dominate for 90 minutes; they simply want moments. And they’re able to producing them with Evens on supply on the double probability market.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Burnley vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
Burnley’s current defensive tweak has seen Josh Laurent nail down that right-sided function and he is embraced it. He’s aggressive, front-footed and completely happy to have interaction early. But there is a high-quality line between aggression and indiscipline and Laurent has been wobbling alongside it for weeks.
Five bookings in 2026 tells its personal story. That’s a harmful behavior if you’re going through a direct runner in Kevin Schade for Brentford. The winger is a strolling reserving magnet. Since the beginning of final season, he is been accountable for 14 opposition gamers seeing yellow. He commits defenders, shifts the ball shortly and forces rash choices. If you are barely off it, or barely too keen, you are in hassle. Laurent is 3/1 with Sky Bet to be carded.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Liverpool vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Liverpool are quick. Very quick. And I’m undecided current performances absolutely justify being 4/11 with Sky Bet.
Yes, they bought the job carried out at Nottingham Forest, however the efficiency was dismal. Fine margins went their approach and on one other day they’re strolling off with dropped factors. Arne Slot’s managed strategy is obvious to see: measured build-up, territorial dominance, lowered chaos. But there is a danger that in ironing out the insanity, you additionally iron out the spark. At occasions they’re drifting dangerously near changing into sterile.
And when West Ham break, they break with function.
Jarrod Bowen stays probably the most environment friendly transition forwards within the league – direct, clever along with his motion and ruthless when the prospect lands. Crysensio Summerville provides that burst of acceleration and unpredictability that may flip defence into assault in seconds. West Ham want wins, subsequently taking a swing on the 6/1 with Sky Bet for what could be a seismic away win makes loads of sense.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Newcastle vs Everton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
When Newcastle get into rhythm at dwelling, quite a lot of their greatest work funnels down the left. Lewis Hall has actually grown into that function and, quietly, he is creating a knack that punters must be being attentive to. Since December he is drawing 2.27 fouls per 90. That’s repeatable behaviour. He shifts the ball shortly, invitations contact and he is changing into among the finest round at promoting a foul when it arrives.
Iliman Ndiaye might be repeatedly partaking Hall and in opposition to a participant averaging north of two drawn fouls per match in that zone, the maths begins to make sense on him making two or extra fouls at 6/4 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Leeds vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Everyone routinely seems to be at Erling Haaland for targets. But the smarter angle proper now could be his creativity. There has been a dramatic uptick in inventive output.
He solely created 10 possibilities from open play in his first 18 league video games of the season in 2025.
He’s already created 10 in simply 9 league video games in 2026.
And when it comes to current output, he is registered six assists in his final 17 video games.
We’re seeing a more rounded Haaland that’s being requested to hitch in additional with build-up. He’s rolling balls throughout the six-yard field. He’s slipping runners in behind.
With City anticipated to attain twice by the market, Haaland’s help value of seven/2 with Sky Bet is of curiosity.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports
Elliot Anderson has been nudged additional ahead beneath new boss Vitor Pereira – and the participant himself has admitted the message is obvious: extra finish product, extra presence within the last third and importantly for us extra photographs.
Music to the ears of anybody who performs within the player-prop markets.
If you issue within the super-sub concession, he is fired off 17 photographs throughout his final 4 appearances. For a participant who, earlier within the season, was usually stationed deeper and tasked with linking play quite than ending it the algorithms that value the photographs markets are lagging behind this positional tweak.
At 11/8 with Sky Bet for 2 or extra photographs, the road feels primarily based on Anderson’s previous function, not his new one.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Fulham vs Tottenham, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
The relegation alarm bells are sounding for Tottenham, who at the moment are 5/1 to be a Championship workforce subsequent season.
With 11 video games to go, that is actual cash being matched. We’re not discussing the unthinkable. We’re discussing the believable.
They’re in huge hazard.
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Sky Sports reporter Michael Bridge is on the Tottenham Hotspur coaching floor to recap the ins and outs of Igor Tudor’s Premier League press convention
And what ought to fear everybody related to the membership most, is not simply the outcomes, it is the id disaster. They look caught between philosophies and kinds. There’s an damage state of affairs that is bitten onerous. And when the stress has gone up, the response hasn’t been there thus far.
Fulham have received all 5 of their Premier League video games in opposition to bottom-five sides this season. They’ve additionally received the final two Premier League conferences with Spurs.
And that is the important thing level: Fulham know precisely who they’re. Structured. Aggressive in the best moments. Calm in possession. Against a aspect working like a bottom-three workforce, at dwelling, that is huge.
Do Spurs have the abdomen for this? The mentality? The scrap? Because proper now, all of the underlying indicators say no. Fulham at Evens with Sky Bet seems to be good to me.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Manchester United vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
This is a type of scheduling spots the place Manchester United being out of Europe provides them an enormous benefit. Oliver Glasner has developed a really clear sample. When there is a knockout recreation in Europe, all the pieces goes into it. Emotionally, tactically, bodily, the dial will get turned up. The concern? The league recreation that follows usually pays the value.
Across the final eight league fixtures instantly after a midweek knockout match, Glasner’s groups have misplaced six, drawn one and received simply as soon as. And even that victory – in opposition to Wolves final weekend – had greater than a whiff of fortune about it. Fine margins went their approach.
Now they head to face Manchester United who’ve began to search out some rhythm. There’s been extra function of their attacking play. At 11/8 with Sky Bet for Manchester United to win by two or extra targets, you are getting a value that does not absolutely account for a predicted post-Europe wobble from Palace.
SCORE PREDICTION: 4-0
Arsenal vs Chelsea, Sunday 4.30pm, stay on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
This fixture for Arsenal is one in every of solely two remaining within the Premier League in opposition to one other present high six opponent. The different is the journey to Manchester City in April.
Chelsea have a tendency to lift their recreation when confronted with an enormous fixture however Arsenal’s defensive course of is simply too dependable to disregard when assessing the costs for this encounter. Arsenal’s underlying course of stays the perfect within the league by a good approach with targets being conceded due to errors or low chance photographs getting in from distance.
The final open-play Premier League aim they conceded contained in the field that did not come from a person error was Ollie Watkins’ comfort for Aston Villa on December 30. That’s 9 video games in the past.
They have not allowed a correctly constructed, carved-open, inside-the-box aim in that point. That is elite defensive management. The traditional wager of Arsenal to win and beneath 3.5 targets at 11/8 with Sky Bet, which has landed in seven of their final 11 dwelling Premier League matches, has a high-quality probability of touchdown.
