As officers in Ottawa have been getting ready for Prime Minister Mark Carney’s maiden go to to India, Canadian police have been knocking on a Sikh activist’s door in Surrey, Vancouver, on Sunday to tell him that his life was in danger.
Moninder Singh, who heads the Sikh Federation of Canada, had beforehand already acquired three such warnings from the Vancouver police. But this time, citing a confidential informant, police instructed Singh that his spouse and two youngsters have been in danger, too.
“I was told to make sure it’s extended to you, your wife and your two children,” the police officer instructed Singh in a dialog recorded on his residence’s doorbell digital camera.
Singh was an affiliate of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh activist and Canadian citizen who was assassinated in Canada in June 2023. The killing brought on an enormous diplomatic row. Canada accused Indian authorities brokers of involvement in Nijjar’s killing, and framed it as a part of an Indian coverage of transnational repression focusing on Sikh activists overseas.
But, whereas Singh was knowledgeable of the menace to him and his household on Sunday, a senior Canadian authorities official instructed reporters in an off-the-record briefing on Wednesday that “India is no longer a threat” to safety, two days earlier than Carney was as a result of land in New Delhi.
This marks a major shift in Canada’s tone and strategy to India underneath Carney, who’s trying to diversify overseas relations to cushion the influence from United States President Donald Trump’s commerce conflict, analysts say.
Observers say Carney’s go to to New Delhi this week might mark the beginning of a reset of the bilateral relationship, which hit new lows in recent times underneath Canada’s former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The rupture in ties
The temper in Ottawa had already modified a terrific deal since Carney succeeded Trudeau to guide the federal government in March final 12 months.
Under Trudeau, relations between Canada and India had deteriorated to tit-for-tat accusations and the expulsion of diplomats, notably because the killing of Nijjar in June 2023.
Nijjar was a outstanding advocate for a Sikh homeland within the type of an unbiased Khalistani state in India. New Delhi calls this separatism and views Nijjar and others within the motion as “terrorists”.
Following Nijjar’s killing, strain mounted on Trudeau from the influential Sikh diaspora in Canada, demanding accountability. In October 2024, throughout an inquiry into overseas interference, Trudeau stated there have been “ever clearer indications” that India had violated Canada’s sovereignty by focusing on Sikh activists on Canadian soil.
India’s “actions”, Trudeau stated, have been a “horrific mistake”.
Canada additionally accused India of interfering in its home politics, together with by offering funds to politicians whom New Delhi most popular. India firmly rejected the allegations, calling them “preposterous”, and urged Canada to take motion towards anti-Indian components working from its soil – an obvious reference to Sikh activists.
But Nijjar’s killing opened a can of worms for the Indian institution. In November 2023, the US Department of Justice charged an Indian nationwide with allegedly plotting to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an American lawyer and likewise a Sikh activist.
Nikhil Gupta, 54, accused of plotting to kill Pannun, pleaded guilty to a few prison prices in a federal courtroom in New York City earlier this month. He faces as much as 40 years in jail for admitting to murder-for-hire, conspiracy to commit murder-for-hire, and conspiracy to commit cash laundering.
Sikh activists within the United Kingdom have been additionally reportedly warned of a menace from the Indian authorities.
Trudeau’s strategy to the problem, in some sense, had turn into emblematic of the issue in bilateral ties, stated Harsh Pant, a overseas coverage analyst in New Delhi.
His confrontational strategy “meant that issues that could have been dealt with at the bureaucratic level were elevated to the strategic level”, and it grew to become troublesome to disentangle the 2, he added.
Thaw in icy relations
When Carney was elected new leader of the ruling Liberal Party in 2025, he changed Justin Trudeau amid historic tensions with the United States and fears of a commerce conflict with the Trump administration. Carney took the stage, actively in search of new companions to mitigate this menace.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi leapt to congratulate him and instantly referred to as on him “to strengthen our partnership and unlock greater opportunities for our people”.
Soon, Carney had invited Modi to Canada for the G7 summit in June final 12 months, the place each leaders met on the sidelines. New envoys in each nations adopted. Suddenly, all the pieces had modified within the relationship, stated Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based analyst on South Asia.
“There is just more optimism and momentum for the relationship,” Kugelman instructed Al Jazeera. Under Carney, the Canadian authorities “recognises that this relationship is too important to let it flounder”.
The industrial incentives for Canada to get the connection again on monitor are enormous. “And that all starts with changing the tone and the mood,” Kugelman stated. Hence, this week’s feedback by Canadian officers that “India is no longer a threat”.
Vina Nadjibulla, vp on the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, instructed Al Jazeera that Ottawa has moved from a public, crisis-driven posture to a extra deliberate, step-by-step “reset”.
Under Carney, “the emphasis is on rebuilding structured channels so security concerns – including transnational repression and interference – can be handled through sustained law enforcement and national security cooperation rather than megaphone diplomacy,” she argued.
“Ottawa is trying to do both at once: defend the rule of law at home while advancing areas of mutual interest abroad.”
But Carney’s change in strategy doesn’t imply the issue of threats towards Sikh activists has vanished.
“Canadian officials definitely still worry about the transnational repression issue, and particularly as legal proceedings continue,” stated Kugelman.
The present Canadian authorities is merely taking a unique strategy, he recommended: “a more ‘accommodationist’ approach – one that focuses on essentially working through this issue with India”.
Unlike the Canadian officers of their off-the-record briefing, Foreign Minister Anita Anand evaded a direct query from reporters when quizzed about whether or not India is not thought-about a menace. Instead, she stated, discussions on the problems of transnational violence are ongoing on the highest ranges of each governments.
New Delhi may even need to deal with the challenges of “Khalistani extremism”, which will likely be a problem for Carney, stated Pant, who’s vp of the Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based suppose tank.
The means ahead
On Friday, Carney began his two-day visit to New Delhi, the place the 2 prime ministers are holding talks at Hyderabad House and can overview the India-Canada Strategic Partnership.
The Canadian PM can also be anticipated to lock in offers on commerce and funding, together with on power, crucial minerals, agriculture, schooling, analysis and people-to-people ties.
Collaboration in these sectors will outline the trajectory of this relationship going ahead, stated Pant.
Ultimately, the important thing exterior issue driving Carney’s go to to New Delhi is Trump’s commerce conflict, stated Kugelman. Both Canada and India have seen their relations with the US, a prime commerce accomplice, slide since Trump returned to the White House in January final 12 months.
While India has considerably stabilised its relations with the US this 12 months since commerce negotiations reached the ultimate levels, Ottawa and Washington stay at odds over their worldviews and worldwide commerce.
“[Carney’s approach] is part of a broader global trend that we’re seeing, countries that have worked with the US for a long time are now looking to strengthen ties with other partners,” stated Kugelman. “From the perspective of Ottawa and New Delhi, it’s really a no-brainer that this relationship not only has to get back on track, but it also needs to be put in a position where it can grow even more.”
Nadjibulla of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada added that India is essential to Canada’s efforts to cut back over-reliance on the US and to diversify its financial and strategic partnerships.
But unresolved points, like those of transnational violence, undermine the sturdiness of now-blooming bilateral ties, she added.
“If unresolved security allegations sit in the background without credible processes and enforcement cooperation, normalisation becomes politically brittle,” Nadjibulla instructed Al Jazeera. “Vulnerable to the next incident, leak, or court development.”
